The West Indies is one of the most desirable travel destinations in the world, and for the next month and a half, beginning on March 14th, travelling cricket fans will have the gaze of crystal clear waters and lush rainforests as the backdrop to reggae swaying atmospheric stadia, as the World Cup is held there for the very first time.
 
Logistically, it has been a huge task to organise, and only time will tell whether the nine stadiums, each on different islands (with one on the mainland in Guyana) in the notoriously laid back world of the Caribbean can be successfully co-ordinated. Aside from the carnival atmosphere there is the very serious business of the on field to take place.
 
The West Indies themselves are not without their supporters in the markets, and can be backed at a best price of 8/1. the World Cup matters greatly to the locals, and always has them going back to the inaugural edition back in 1975 when Clive Lloyd captained his team of all stars to the Cup. These were the glory days of West Indian cricket, and in recent times they have struggled to compete consistently in both test and One Day arenas.
 
Much is always written of the mysterious "home advantage" factor, and punters and bookies alike allow some sway for this factor alone. In many sports, without totally understanding the logic of this advantage, the results bear this out. This is true even in test cricket, but the figures relating to ODI's are not so compelling. Since the break of this millennium, the Windies have played 59 games at home, and won 30, which it will not take a mathematician to tell you, is just about half. Away from home they have lost 64 of 111 fixtures but it seems clear to us that none of the "big eight" nations should be scared of taking on the West Indies simply because they will be at home.
 
It is also interesting to note that only once, back in 1983 has the country hosting the event gone on to become champions. They managed to win the Champions Trophy in 2004, and made the final again as recently as September but these are sporadic glimpses of hope. There are good players in their squad and perhaps they will blossom in the spotlight, but for us there is too much uncertainty to be seriously considering backing them.
 
So what about Australia? They have won the last two World Cups, as well as the Champions Trophy in October, and are perhaps rightly the huge favourites at 5/2. This price holds no appeal though. At the time of writing they have lost their last 7 ODI's, three to England and four to New Zealand. They have also resting captain Ricky Ponting and Adam Gilchrist, while three more automatic choices for the team, Andrew Symonds, Mathew Hayden and Brett Lee are all harbouring injuries which may force their withdrawal from the squad. The post Commonwealth Bank Series journey to New Zealand may well have been ill advised.
 
This is Australia though, and they are an incredibly resolute outfit. There is an argument to say that being written off purely seems to spur them on to greater bounds as evidenced by the recent 5-0 Ashes series win when England were being touted as genuine contenders. We would not count against them coming good, but will certainly not be throwing any money their way either with so many doubts, at such a short price.
 
Six weeks ago, any suggestion that England could win this tournament would have been dismissed as ludicrous. They had been woeful in the short form of the game for the past 18 months, and were being roundly hammered by New Zealand and Australia in the Commonwealth Bank Series. From the verge of an ignominious exit though, they have suddenly flourished and now won their last four games, including three against the World Champions to take that series and instil some very real belief. Each of these wins came in a pressured atmosphere with ultimate failure the result for any losses. These experiences should hold them in good stead when the crunch games come in the World Cup. With their best batsman Kevin Pietersen ready to be added to the team, and Michael Vaughan also in the squad, England do actually look strong on paper.
 
Something that may be worth considering is that they have seemed to develop a knack for starting slowly before coming good. This was certainly true in the Commonwealth Bank Series, and last summer they came back from 2-0 down to level with Pakistan after being whitewashed by Sri Lanka. The message could be that if things are not going well in the early stages of the Super 8, do not write them off. England have made three finals over the years, being beaten on each occasion and can be backed at a best of 9/1 this time around.
 
For us, South Africa are the form team and are very supportable at a best price of 9/2. Firstly, they seem to relish the Caribbean conditions, having won 10 of 15 games there, and 10 of the last 11. Since the beginning of the series against England two years ago, (memorable as being when Kevin Pietersen burst onto the scene for England), the proteas have lost just 13 of 53 matches, a fantastic record.
 
A semi final loss to the West Indies at the Champions Trophy was disappointing, but they have bounced back with two convincing home series against India and Pakistan. The former saw a 4-0 clean sweep, whilst the Pakistani's could only register one win in their four completed fixtures. They are wealthy in terms of all rounders, a valuable commodity in this form of the game, with four in their 15-man squad, namely Jaques Kallis, Shaun Pollock, Andrew Hall and Justin Kemp. Skipper Graeme Smith at the top of the order is arguably the best opener in the game and in fine form and one of the best skippers, whilst AB de Villiers, Kallis and Hershelle Gibbs are all formidable in the top to middle order. Pollock is bowling as well as ever, winning man of the series against Pakistan, and Makhaya Ntini continues to improve with the new ball. Being in the same group as Australia is neither a help nor a hindrance, as they would have to play them in the Super 8 stage anyhow.
 
Some detractors will mention that South Africa have not had much joy away from home in the past few years. However, the results in the West Indies prove this to be wrong and since losing 10 in a row during 2004, they have drawn a series in India 2-2, and also won three games in Australia, one against the hosts and two against Sri Lanka. It would be wrong not to mention that they also lost five games in that VB Series of 2004, but these results show that there is no real problem with competing away from the sanctuary of home. They are our headline pick to go all the way for the first time in their history.
 
The three sub-continent powerhouses, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are all former winners of the World Cup, and it would not be a surprise to see any of them in the shake up this time around.
 
Pakistan have had a turbulent year off the field with drug suspensions and test walkouts, and on the field they have also been inconsistent, especially in the one dayers. Since the start of 2006, they have only won half of their games. In the summer they relinquished a 2-0 series lead against England to draw at 2-2, and then made an early departure from the Champions Trophy after losing 2 out of 3. A 3-1 over the Windies was better but the latest loss, by the same margin to South Africa makes us believe this team cannot be relied upon to perform. Sure, on their day they can beat anybody, but that statement can be made about any of the top eight nations. We believe there is less in the Pakistan plus column than there is for other nations.
 
India began 2006 winning 11 of 14 ODI's and were appearing very strong. However, a 1-4 defeat in the West Indies started a slide from which they have not yet recovered. The ability in the team, especially at the top of the batting order is possibly the best in the game, although Virender Sehwag looks nothing like the player he was, and even Sachin Tendulkar is visibly losing fluency. The Little Master will be hoping to become the only man to have hit 5 centuries in the World Cup though and that is something worth looking out for. Rahul Dravid is captain and has made some interesting comments prior to the event. He has spoken of how it is really the responsibility of 6 or 7 key players to perform, rather than flouting the importance of a whole squad all doing their part. We are not sure that this stance will be particularly good for the morale of the squad.
 
Their most recent outing came against Sri Lanka, the 1996 champions, and a team priced at 8/1. At the time of their incredible victory in this tournament, Sri Lanka were a genuine specialist one day outfit and provided the blueprint for Australia, in as much as it became apparent an all out attacking opening batsman is a very desirable property. The main protagonist, Sanath Jayasuriya is till there, and still performing well, although the man who almost single handily won the final, Aravinda de Silva is long gone. Tom Moody is a canny coach and with two world Cup winners medals he is well placed to guide their path through the tournament. However, they were shown to be in a different class to India just last week and feel they are likely to come unstuck in the Super eight stage.
 
The last team we will look at as potential champions is New Zealand, and nothing could be better for their confidence that the 3-0 whitewash they inflicted on Australia finishing on February 21st. With a price of 10/1 available there is some temptation to have a piece in an each way capacity, which pays out at half the odds for a top three finish.
 
They made it to the semi-finals of the Champions Trophy in the autumn, and were unfortunate not to make it to the finals of the Commonwealth Bank Series in Australia. Stephen Fleming is widely regarded as the best captain in the game, and he will surely find his form at some point. Jacob Oram was a massive success story in Australia, and the first game of the Chapple-Hadllee Trophy but has broken his finger and so will sit out the initial contests. The all rounder should return for the crunch games though, while Craig Macmillan is accomplished in this area, and Oram's replacement Peter Fulton has chipped in with some useful scores against Australia of late. Shane Bond is bowling well, and if all of the key men stay fit they can certainly do very well in the Caribbean.