BACK BOLTON TO FIRE FIRST
 
Both Arsenal and Bolton emerge from their weekend Premiership fixtures with confidence high following victories over Wigan and Fulham respectively, just the tonic for both sides as the prepare to do battle at the Reebok Stadium on Wednesday for a place in the 5th round of the FA Cup where Blackburn Rovers lie in wait.
 
The Trotters looked set to inflict defeat on Arsenal for the first time at the Emirates on January 28 when a 50th-miniute Kevin Nolan strike put them ahead, only for the Gunners’ irrepressible defender Kolo Toure to grab an equaliser 12 minutes before the final whistle and earn his side a second chance in this replay.
 
Invariably, games between these two sides are tight, and Sam Allardyce’s charges have a knack of taming the tiger that is Arsenal. Indeed, the north London side find the Lancashire club a tough not to crack – they’ve beaten Bolton just once in their last eight meetings, and have been beaten the last three times that they have traveled to the Reebok.
 
Bolton have been accused of “rough house” tactics and, it has to be said, the way their players congregate around the opposing goalkeeper at set-pieces is not always a pretty sight. However, one must cut one’s coat according to one’s cloth and, therefore, you have to take your hat off to ‘Big Sam’, who does just that to such good effect with his squad.
 
Indeed, providing that they adhere to the letter of the law, the voices of disapproval from opposing managers and players alike will simply fall on deaf ears, for as long as results are going their way, you can’t expect Bolton to deviate from a winning formula. And for all Arsenal’s technical ability – something which few sides in Europe, never mind England, can match, they do struggle against this robust Bolton side.
 
Arsenal’s results away from home haven’t been too bad at all – they’ve only been turned over once in their last 10 matches in all competitions on the road. However, it’s fair to say that their performances are often lacking, as was the case when they played out a 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough at the Riverside in their penultimate match.
 
With the exception of Thierry Henry and Tomas Rosicky, Arsenal’s players often seem reluctant to take speculative shots – they are always looking for another pass – and it’s often their desire for intricacy that is their own downfall. If they try to walk the ball into the net against Bolton on Wednesday, they’ll be barking up the wrong tree.
 
With quite a few players on the easy list, Wenger won’t be able to rest too many players, so the side he fields probably won’t be that different to the one that took to the field against Wigan on Sunday. Julio Baptista doesn’t look like a natural striker to me – he looks better when slotting in behind the front two – so it will be no surprise to see Aliadiere or Adebayor start up front alongside Henry, or together if the skipper is rested.
 
Given his history with Arsenal, Bolton striker Nicolas Anelka is bound to be up for this game in a major way, as he has been on both occasions that he’s faced his old club this season – he scored a brace during his side’s 3-1 victory over the Gunners at the Reebok in November – and the visitors’ defense will need to keep this enemy close.
 
I don’t like to sit on the fence, but on this occasion it’s simply to tricky, thus too financially risky, to predict the outcome or likely score – or even a goalscorer – within this match. From a total goals perspective, it’s also perilously difficult, because, especially with Arsenal, you can never be quite sure of what you are going to get.
 
However, Arsenal have a propensity to go behind in their games before rallying late in the day to salvage something. In five of their last six games they’ve gone behind before coming back to either draw or win. With this in mind it is worth backing Bolton in the first team to score market at 5/4 with Stan James.
 
The Gunners appear to need a rude awakening before coming alive in their matches, and it may well be that Bolton will catch them napping in the early exchanges. The problem for Arsenal, though, is that, if they do end up going behind, as I suspect they will, it will be a struggle to overturn any deficit against a dogged Bolton side in their own backyard.
 
Verdict - 2.50pts Bolton in the first team to score market @ 5/4 (Stan James)