The 2010 John Smith’s Grand National is finally here and after three wins (at odds as big as 14/1) and four places (at odds as big as 22/1 and 16/1) from just ten tips on the first two days of the Aintree Festival, Pro Tipster Nick Wilby is in top form. He takes a look at the first five races on today’s card from Liverpool.
Alternatively, read Ross Aylward’s Grand National guide here.
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Nick Wilby's big meeting guide:
13:45 John Smith's Mersey Novices' Hurdle
Grade Two – 2m4f
John Smith’s Grand National day at Aintree gets underway with an intriguing renewal of the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and much will depend on the fitness of the unbeaten PEDDLERS CROSS (11/10, Paddy Power £20 free) who returns after his scintillating victory in a Grade One at Cheltenham just three weeks ago. Looking better and better each time he has run, McCain’s horse will be near impossible to beat if he is in the same mood as he was at the Festival, but he must overcome the horrendous record of Cheltenham winners running at this meeting and he will need to be fully fit if he is to get punters off to a winning start. However, as we saw with Big Buck’s earlier in the week, trends are there to be ignored by horses with a freakish amount of ability and he is the one they all have to beat.
Najaf (7/2, Paddy Power £20 free) represents the ultra-powerful Paul Nicholls stable and is respected based on his second in a Grade One at Cheltenham latest and the talented Bygones of Brid (9/1, Blue Square £66 free) is more than capable of giving the selection a scare.
Nick Wilby’s selection – Peddlers Cross (11/10, Paddy Power)
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14:15 John Smith's Maghull Novices' Chase
Grade One – 2m
A wide open looking renewal of the Maghull, the wellbeing of Cheltenham Festival principals Osana (4/1, Bet365 £200 free) and French Opera (4/1, Sky Bet) will have a huge impact on this race and if all is well with the duo they are hard to split. Osana chased home the mighty Sizing Europe in the Arkle just three weeks ago proving what a top class recruit to fences he is and French Opera arrives in Liverpool on the back of a creditable second under top weight in the Grand Annual. Both are formidable opposition based on the form book, but it may be worth siding with Paul Nicholls’ TATANIANO (11/2, Paddy Power £20 free) who has had this race as his principal target for some time. A one-time market leader for the Arkle at Cheltenham, Nicholls’ horse fluffed his lines over an extended distance and on poor ground in a Newbury prep after an ultra-impressive autumn campaign and was forced to swerve Cheltenham as a result. That may not be such a bad thing and he will be roaring to go come Saturday afternoon. Bergo (15/2, VCBet £100 free) takes a big leap in class but he cannot be ignored based on his unbeaten chasing career.
Nick WIlby’s selection – Tataniano (11/2,Paddy Power)
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14:50 John Smith's Dick Francis Aintree Hurdle
Grade One – 2m4f
The Champion Hurdle second, third and fourth all return three weeks after chasing home the awesome Binocular at Cheltenham and all three dominate the betting, despite the awful record of Champion Hurdle runners in the Aintree equivalent. Khyber Kim (3/1, Stan James, £25 free) was the closest to Binocular that day and is finally beginning to fulfil the potential he showed when originally joining the jumping division. A much more reliable horse in 2009/10, he would be the one to beat if he shows up at Aintree in the same mood as three weeks ago – but a step up in trip has to be of slight concern.
Celestial Halo (5/1, William Hill £25 free) ran a stinker here last year after finishing second in the Champion Hurdle and he is not one to have too much confidence in, despite the trip playing right into his hands. Instead, it is ZAYNAR (13/8,Paddy Power £20 free) that looks the one to be on and he should have no trouble reversing the form with Quwetwo (10/1, Ladbrokes) and he is taken to regain the winning thread after landing the first five of his seven starts over hurdles. A World Hurdle contender for 2011, this step up in trip is certain to suit and he remains a top class prospect.
Nick Wilby’s selection – Zaynar (13/8, Paddy Power)
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15:25 John Smith's Handicap Chase
Listed Handicap – 3m1f
A puzzling looking betting heat that can go the way of Grade One-winning Irish raider RARE BOB (9/1, Blue Square, £66 free). After tasting glory at the highest level at Punchestown in April, Dessie Hughes’ talented chaser looked to have a bright season ahead of him in 2009/10 but all has not gone according to plan. Lightly campaigned, he has not won since but it is easy to find excuses for his defeats and he looks set to run a big race over a more suitable trip on ground he should enjoy. He has a classy profile and could prove a notch above the rest of the field. Wogan (11/2, Bet365 £200 free) and Au Courant (10/1, VCBet £100 free) are other leading contenders in a race that should only be played each-way.
Nick Wilby’s selection – Rare Bob each-way (9/1,Blue Square)
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16:15 John Smith's Grand National Chase
Grade Three Handicap – 4m4f
(Already advised – Snowy Morning antepost 20/1)
Last year punters were left stunned by 100/1 shock Mon Mome, but the victory was no fluke and supporters of the horse will have to settle for a best priced 14/1 (Boylesports, £20 free) if they think he is up to emulating Red Rum and landing back-to-back victories in the National. Despite being raised 7lbs for his comfortable victory last year, punters will look to his creditable third in last month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup where he managed to grab Carruthers and Cooldine on the line and the light campaign has enjoyed this season with this race in mind.
The current favourite for the race is Big Fella Thanks (10/1, Ladbrokes), the choice of dual National winning jockey Ruby Walsh who will be looking to end Paul Nicholls’ hoodoo in the Liverpool feature. Walsh certainly knows how to win a Grand National with two victories in the race to his name and in Big Fella Thanks he saddles a horse that is officially 5lb well in, despite running off a 3lb higher mark than last year. After finishing sixth in 2009, the talented novice has been trained specifically for this race and an impressive victory over an inadequate trip at Newbury in March will have him spot on. That being said, his price is on the short side and punters who have backed the horse at 14/1 or above will be the only ones with a value bet on the favourite.
Big Fella Thanks’ highly touted stablemate Tricky Trickster (18/1, Blue Square £66 free) had been antepost favourite for the race before his Cheltenham Gold Cup flop and after beating only one horse home behind Imperial Commander last month, the Aon Chase winner hardly heads into the race on the back of an eye-catching preparation. If he were to win, he would become the first seven-year-old to do so in seventy years and he does not tick the boxes when it comes to trends. The same can be said about David Pipe’s The Package (14/1, Sportingbet) who ran a blinder when a staying-on second in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham last month. Hugely talented but ultimately quirky, The Package is an interesting candidate, though he is unlikely to appreciate the atmosphere at Aintree and the edgy youngster will have to be on his best behaviour during the preliminaries.
Instead it may be best to take a chance on Willie Mullins’ Irish raider SNOWY MORNING (16/1,Betfred, £50 free) making it third time lucky in the world’s most famous steeplechase.
After finishing a very creditable third behind Comply Or Die when carrying 11st 1lb two years ago, Snowy Morning returned for another bite of the cherry last year, finishing ninth under 11st8lbs after making errors and stumbling very badly on the turn for home. He was in fifth place and looked to have every chance after jumping the last but tired under his hefty weight in the run in. Down 9lbs this year, he is now attractively weighted for a horse than has successfully negotiated the daunting Aintree fences on two separate occasions and while many will hold his tendency to make the odd mistake against him, his jumping has twice passed the ultimate test.
Still only ten years of age, Snowy Morning’s career is littered with top class form and impressive performances against some of jumping’s most seasoned superstars and he has been placed a remarkable 21 out of 29 times in his career. It is difficult to see why the handicapper has taken it upon himself to drop the horse 9lbs in the weights and he has been in fine form this year, racing over mostly inadequate distances, including when a good third to Tranquil Sea at Leopardstown last time out.
Versatile when it comes to ground, Willie Mullins’ superstar has proven on more than one occasion that he can handle soft or heavy conditions, though his backers will be happy to see him running on perfect jumping ground. Snowy Morning is a classy chaser who has long had the Grand National as his principal target and he fits all the trends of a future winner, being aged ten, almost certain to carry less than 11st 5lbs and most importantly, having been trained with the race in mind and he appeals as a very attractive each-way bet at 16/1.
2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State Of Play (16/1, Bet365 £200 free) returns to Aintree after finishing fourth when racing off a 5lb higher mark last year and is respected, while 2008 National winner and 2009 runner-up Comply Or Die (20/1, VCBet £100 free) is down 1lb and is more than capable of putting up another bold performance in Liverpool. Irish duo Abor Supreme (16/1, Ladbrokes) and Black Apalachi (16/1, Boylesports £20 free) also enter calculations and are not easily passed over.
Nick Wilby’s selection – Snowy Morning each-way (16/1, Betfred)
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