Ross Aylward www.Bettingpro.com tipster gives us his tips for the 2010 Gold Cup
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GOLD CUP TIPS
Kauto Star and Denman have swapped first and second placings in the last two Gold Cups and most people are expecting them to fight out the finish in this year's renewal (3.20), but they are wrong to see it as a two-horse race.
The Favourite
What's left to be said about Kauto Star that hasn't already been said? The outstanding chaser of his generation and twice a winner of this race has that rare commodity of speed and stamina and has looked better than ever this season - confounding all those people who wrote him off after his Gold Cup defeat in 2008 - when winning an historic fourth King George in December by a truly sensational 36 lengths.
That's not the first time he's made history as last season he became the first horse to retain the Gold Cup with an emphatic 13-length success over Denman, thus taking the score to 1-1 in meetings between them, and this year's race was shaping up as the 'decider' until Denman crashed out in spectacular fashion in his warm-up race. Odds against before that race, Kauto is now quite rightly odds-on, with Sportingbet alone in offering him at 8/11 (4/6 general). He does have some history against him, though, as there have been only two winners as old as ten in the last 20 years, and none in the last 10 years. However, there haven't been many ten-year-olds like him.
The Dangers
Let's start with Denman, who has now come a cropper with horrendous blunders in twice in his last three starts. Last time, he was in the process of not running very well anyway, although it's worth noting he finished second in last years' Gold Cup after an even more lacklustre warm-up performance at Kempton, and his trainer Paul Nicholls reports him to have tightened up physically and mentally since. Therefore, it's not impossible he could regain his crown - a general 4/1 chance - although he will need to be back to his brilliant best and, even if was, he might still find Kauto Star too good. Essentially a soft ground horse, any rain that falls between now and Friday is in his favour.
Imperial Commander (8/1 bet365), most people's idea of the biggest danger to the big two, is a real course specialist, having won four of five chase starts at Cheltenham (only defeat when below his best due to a back problem). He is yet to win over 3m and this time last year the doubt over him staying the trip persuaded connections to sidestep the Gold Cup to run in the Ryanair, which he won impressively. However, his reappearance run in the Betfair Chase, in which he ran a below-par Kauto Star to an inch, has dispelled such doubts and the fact he hasn't run since flopping in the King George (a similar performance last season didn't stop him winning the Ryanair) is a big plus as he's best fresh. His jumping was iffy at Haydock and at Kempton, but he's hardly touched a twig round here.
Cooldine (8/1 general - 9/1 Betfair) marked himself a future Gold Cup winner when destroying the opposition in last year's RSA Chase and looked to be coming to hand last time when beaten a neck by Joncol in the Irish Hennessy. He does have loads to find with the big two on the ratings, though.
Longshot
Tricky Trickster (16/1 William Hill), a lightly-raced seven-year-old who loves a stamina test, will be staying on better than most and, while this race is being used as a prep for the Grand National, he is worth considering without the big two (5/1 with Coral).
Key Stat
None of the usual key stats for the Gold Cup seem to apply to this year's field, and Kauto Star is already a real trends-buster.
Verdict
It will take a monumental performance to lower Kauto Star's colours and he simply has to be selection, providing the ground doesn't deteriorate too much. While Kauto goes on soft ground, he's surely better on a faster surface - it's no coincidence his top five races on ratings were all on no worse than good to soft. Much depends on how much of the forecast rain gets in before the race on Friday but on anything worse than 'good to soft', I would consider switching my allegiance to IMPERIAL COMMANDER as, bar a revitalised Denman (??), he is the one horse who can beat Kauto.