Manchester United v Arsenal Tips - 11th Jan 2008 - Brian Thomas on TipsterBlog
 
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 Hell Bent On A Move?A Real Chance Of Prizing Heinze? 
 
Filed under: Ascot  
Posted: Jul 12th 2006 by James

I'm So Lucky is just as effective on a left-handed tracks having won at both Warwick and Newbury during his fourteen-race career, and his style of racing will make him extremely difficult to peg back on the Knavesmire on Saturday, as we have seen time and time again that front runners are at an advantage here, especially when the ground is riding on the fast side, which it is nigh-on certain to be at the weekend.

Many will fancy Wild Savannah to turn the tables with I'm So Lucky on 5lb better terms but I don't buy that at all. If anything, the latter will beat John Gosden's charge even more comprehensively at York, which is flat and sharp whereas Ascot is more of a galloping track.

Indeed, Wild Savannah is a big, strong galloping type and although he has ran well on the All-Weather at Lingfield before, suggesting that this circuit won't be a problem, I just think that the combination of the nature of the course and fast going on Saturday will ne present enough of a stamina test for the Singspiel colt.

Furthermore, a warning shot was fired at punters when Gosden cited that his charge may in fact bypass this competitive handicap and instead go for a Listed contest at Newbury next weekend. Some ante-post players, it seems, are at risk of not getting a run for their hard-earned, and Wild Savannah has been well backed in recent days.

Irrespective of whether he takes his chance or not, a bigger danger to the selection in my opinion will be Forgery. His trainer, Gerald Butler, has endured a torrid time of it this season but the four-year-old, who has been beset by injury over the past couple of seasons, provided a welcome tonic when finishing like a bullet to land the Bloor Homes Spring Cup over a mile at Newbury in April before finishing a creditable seventh when quietly fancied for the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.

The one time Derby entry will have no problem with the step back up in trip and while he would probably prefer a bit more juice in the ground, he is an unexposed horse with plenty of ability - scope for improvement notwithstanding - therefore it would be no surprise to see him go very close indeed.

Star Of Light is a horse I have a lot of time for, and he is a tough, reliable cookie, who will be hard to keep out of the frame. However, I just wander whether the handicapper might have his measure now.

He wasn't beaten far when fifth to I'm So Lucky at Royal Ascot at York but I don't reckon a 5lb pull will be enough for him to reverse the placings and he was ultimately soundly beaten when finishing four lengths third to Consular in the Old Newton Cup last weekend, albeit under a claiming rider.

Don't get me wrong, with Alan Munro back in the plate he is a real danger, and having backed him the last twice it's not easy to turn my back on him now. However, I just think that one or two may be better handicapped.

In I'm So Lucky's race at Royal Ascot, plenty of people did their money on Public Forum, who was touted as a potential blot on the handicap and was sent off a well-supported 7/2 favourite but could finish only twelfth of sixteen.

The Rainbow Quest colt is no doubt better than he showed that day but he has a fair bit to prove now given that that was his first start on a fast surface. Indeed, his most impressive victory was achieved on good to soft going at Goodwood last year and it could be that the Sir Michael Stoute-trained four-year-old just doesn't let himself down on top of the ground.

Verdict - 1pt e/w I'm So Lucky @ 10/1 (totesport)

 
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