
After giving the Americans a good thrashing in their own backyard last weekend, we now turn our attention to the Southern Hemisphere and Tuesday's renewal of Australia's most famous race, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we (by which I mean Britain and Ireland) won the Melbourne Cup for the first time since Media Puzzle triumphed for Dermot Weld in 2002.
While it would be naive of me to underestimate the chances of the local runners, we do look to have several in with chances, headed by Septimus, who was clipped to 10/3 favourite (from 7/2) by Paddy Power and William Hill this week. The Irish St Leger winner is no doubt the class act in the field, but as with his stablemate Yeats, who finished seventh in 2006 when favourite, the combination of top weight (9st 3lb) and fast ground may find him out.
It's also a slight concern that he is reportedly below his usual pre-race weight. His trainer Aidan O'Brien is unsure how this might effect him, saying, "Septimus is about three to four kilos lighter than he would be at home, but he has travelled to the other side of the world and it's difficult to know whether being that bit lighter is a good or a bad thing."
So, no Septimus for me, but his stablemate Honolulu (20/1 William Hill) cannot be left out of calculations. He does come with his quirks, but he looked to be peaking at just the right time when winning the Doncaster Cup on his last start, and he does have a nice racing weight of 53.5kg (8st 6lb). I can see him finishing in the first four of five. O’Brien is also set to saddle Alessandro Volta, a 50/1 outsider with VCbet.
If Ireland don't win it, then Britain must have an even better chance with the two Luca Cumani-trained runners, MAD RUSH (5/1 Ladbrokes) and Bauer (16/1 Stan James). The latter picked up a 1kg penalty for this race after winning the Geelong Cup in impressive style, but still has a relatively light weight and stays well so he might reward each way backers. However, I'm more confident about the chances of his stablemate Mad Rush, and so is his jockey Damien Oliver.
Oliver, second on Cumani's Purple Moon last year, partnered Mad Rush to finish a staying on fourth to All The Good in the Caulfield Cup, and after riding the four-year-old in work this week, said; "I think Mad Rush has come on a bit since the Caulfield Cup. He was a bit fresh before the work, but he went well, and as I have a bit more experience of him than I had of Purple Moon last year, it gives me that bit more confidence."
As he was on board Bauer in the Geelong Cup, it’s safe to assume that Oliver had the pick of the two and he should know a potential Melbourne Cup winner when he sees one having won on Doriemus (1995) and Media Puzzle (2002). Throw in Mad Rush’s winnable weight of 8st 6lb, his ability to quicken off a fast pace, and the fact that he is trained by a perfectionist who will leave no stone unturned having narrowly missed out last year, and I’m mad keen on his chance.
The problem now is deciding which one of our other runners to include in the exacta!
Mad Rush 3pts @ 5/1 Ladbrokes